首頁 > 資料下載 > 美國煤電經(jīng)濟(jì)與可再生能源崛起Mapping the Economics of U.S. Coal Power and the Rise of Renewables

美國煤電經(jīng)濟(jì)與可再生能源崛起Mapping the Economics of U.S. Coal Power and the Rise of Renewables

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更新時間：2021-09-16
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我們已經(jīng)開發(fā)了一個在線工具CoalMap（CurnMig.com），以幫助活動人士、監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)和公眾探索美國現(xiàn)有燃煤電廠的經(jīng)濟(jì)成本。該工具從公開的數(shù)據(jù)集中提取，通過比較每個電廠的平均運(yùn)營成本與同一地點(diǎn)新的公用事業(yè)規(guī)模太陽能光伏發(fā)電和風(fēng)力發(fā)電的平準(zhǔn)化電力成本（LCoE），確定了特別容易受到停堆影響的美國煤電廠。用戶可以對太陽能和風(fēng)能應(yīng)用不同的碳價格和成本下降率，并觀察未來幾年對可再生能源發(fā)電成本競爭力的影響。我們的研究結(jié)果強(qiáng)調(diào)了持續(xù)的技術(shù)改進(jìn)和適當(dāng)?shù)墓舱邔τ趯⒚绹陌l(fā)電組合轉(zhuǎn)向低碳能源，并最終實(shí)現(xiàn)國家減緩氣候變化目標(biāo)的重要性。隨著每年5%的可再生成本下降和碳價格等于美國政府的社會碳成本，新的未補(bǔ)貼的風(fēng)能和太陽能光伏發(fā)電在現(xiàn)有的煤炭工廠位置將具有成本競爭力的完全攤銷美國煤廠分別為2019和2031。

We have developed an online tool, CoalMap (coalmap.com), to help activists, regulators, and the general public explore the economic costs of existing coal-fired power plants in the United States. Drawing from publicly available datasets, the tool identifies U.S. coal plants that are particularly vulnerable to shutdown efforts by comparing each plant’s average operating cost to the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for new utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind generation in the same location. Users can apply different carbon prices and rates of cost decline for solar and wind, and observe the effects on the cost-competitiveness of renewable generation in future years. Our findings highlight the importance of sustained technology improvement and appropriate public policy in shifting the U.S. electricity generation mix toward low-carbon sources, and ultimately in achieving national climate-change mitigation targets. With 5% annual renewable cost declines and a carbon price equal to the U.S. government’s social cost of carbon, new unsubsidized wind and solar PV generation at existing coal plant locations will be cost-competitive with fully amortized U.S. coal plants by 2019 and 2031, respectively.

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