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煤炭需求，市場力量和美國煤礦關閉Coal Demand, Market Forces, and US Coal Mine Closures

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更新時間：2021-09-16
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經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型有可能使工人流離失所并引發(fā)社會動蕩。美國東部煤礦因電力系統(tǒng)的變化而關閉，導致農(nóng)村地區(qū)的就業(yè)損失，已成為各級政府面臨的突出問題。此前的研究并未區(qū)分近期關閉煤礦的潛在原因，如生產(chǎn)成本上升和電力部門煤炭需求下降。該分析利用煤礦和電廠運營的獨特數(shù)據(jù)來估計供需因素對礦井關閉的影響。我們將關閉作為預期收益的函數(shù)進行建模，這使我們能夠?qū)⑻囟ㄐ枨蠛凸獩_擊對關閉礦井的影響與預期礦井收益進行比較。我們的結(jié)果表明，每次沖擊都會對煤礦就業(yè)產(chǎn)生實質(zhì)性影響。阿巴拉契亞煤炭生產(chǎn)成本的增加對關閉的影響最大，天然氣價格下降，電力需求下降，每種情況都導致大量關閉。

Economic transitions have the potential to displace workers and cause social unrest. Coal mine closures in the eastern United States due to the changing electricity system and the resulting employment losses in rural areas have become salient issues for all levels of government. Previous research has not distinguished among the potential causes of recent mine closures, such as rising production costs and decreasing coal demand from the electricity sector. This analysis utilizes unique data on coal mine and power plant operation to estimate the impact of supply and demand factors on mine closure. We model closure as a function of expected pro?ts, which allows us to compare the e?ects on mine closure of speci?c demand and supply shocks to expected mine pro?ts. Our results suggest that each shock substantially a?ected coal mine employment. Increasing costs of producing Appalachian coal have had the largest impact on closures with lower natural gas prices and lower electricity demand each accounting for a substantial number of closures additionally.

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