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煤炭能卷土重來嗎？CAN COAL MAKE A COMEBACK?

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更新時(shí)間：2021-09-16
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六年前，隨著需求從大衰退中復(fù)蘇，全球煤炭價(jià)格與美國煤炭公司的股價(jià)一起創(chuàng)下歷史新高，美國煤炭行業(yè)蓬勃發(fā)展。然而，到2015年底，該行業(yè)已經(jīng)崩潰，美國四大礦業(yè)公司中的三家與許多其他小公司一起申請破產(chǎn)。幾十年來，煤礦業(yè)的就業(yè)率一直在下降，從20世紀(jì)20年代80多萬人的峰值下降到2011年的13萬人，但過去六年的失業(yè)速度尤其驚人。在競選期間，唐納德特朗普總統(tǒng)承諾結(jié)束他所稱的前任的“煤炭戰(zhàn)爭”后，于2017年3月簽署了一項(xiàng)行政命令，命令各機(jī)構(gòu)審查或撤銷奧巴馬時(shí)代的一系列環(huán)境法規(guī)，告訴煤礦工人他們將“重返工作崗位”。本文對導(dǎo)致煤炭崩潰的原因進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析，然后通過模擬特朗普總統(tǒng)行政命令的影響和評估全球煤炭市場前景，考察了美國煤炭生產(chǎn)和就業(yè)復(fù)蘇的前景。簡而言之，該報(bào)發(fā)現(xiàn)：

Six years ago, the US coal industry was thriving, with demand recovering from the Great Recession, and global coal prices at record highs along with the stock prices of US coal companies. By the end of 2015, however, the industry had collapsed, with three of the four largest US miners filing for bankruptcy along with many other smaller companies. While coal mining employment has been on the decline for decades – from a peak of more than 800,000 in the 1920s to 130,000 in 2011 – the pace of job loss over the past six years has been particularly dramatic. After campaigning on a promise to end what he called his predecessor’s “War on Coal,” President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order in March 2017 ordering agencies to review or rescind a raft of Obama-era environmental regulations, telling coal miners they would be “going back to work.” This paper offers an empirical diagnosis of what caused the coal collapse, and then examines the prospects for a recovery of US coal production and employment by modeling the impact of President Trump’s executive order and assessing the global coal market outlook. In short, the paper finds:

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