亞太經(jīng)合組織2017年煤炭市場報告APEC Coal Market Report 2017
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2016年,全球近75%的煤炭消費(fèi)發(fā)生在亞太經(jīng)合組織成員國。該地區(qū)擁有世界十大煤炭凈出口國中的五個,以及世界十大煤炭凈進(jìn)口國中的六個。2005-2015年期間強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(平均每年3.1%)使煤炭需求增加了30%以上,從2002.74百萬噸/年(2005年)增加到2897百萬噸/年(2015年),年增長率為2.5%(相當(dāng)于每年620百萬噸/年或加拿大和澳大利亞2015年的煤炭總需求之和)。到2015年,煤炭繼續(xù)主導(dǎo)亞太經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)的電力結(jié)構(gòu),占發(fā)電量的一半以上。蓬勃發(fā)展的亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)在亞太經(jīng)合組織(APEC)地區(qū)創(chuàng)造了龐大的中產(chǎn)階級人口,隨后鋼鐵需求增加,2015年鋼鐵需求從2005年的約7.5億噸增加到12億噸,水泥需求從2005年翻了一番多,到2015年達(dá)到30億噸。亞太經(jīng)合組織作為一個區(qū)域,其煤炭產(chǎn)量足以滿足其需求。2015年,五個經(jīng)濟(jì)體滿足了亞太經(jīng)合組織98%的煤炭需求:中國(59%)、美國(14%)、澳大利亞(10%)、印度尼西亞(8.7%)和俄羅斯(6.4%)。在2005年至2011年期間,中國的煤炭產(chǎn)量以每年8%的速度增長,但此后由于國內(nèi)需求的顯著放緩而趨于平穩(wěn)。近年來,美國煤炭產(chǎn)量大幅放緩,從2011年的5.36億噸/年降至2015年的4.31億噸/年,原因是天然氣價格低迷正將煤炭擠出電力行業(yè)。2015年,亞太經(jīng)合組織成員國進(jìn)口煤炭415 Mtoe,比2005年增加48%。亞太經(jīng)合組織進(jìn)口總額的80%以上流向四個經(jīng)濟(jì)體:日本(116mtoe)、中國(100mtoe)、韓國(81mtoe)和中國臺北(36mtoe)。由于電力需求不斷增長,南亞和東南亞等新興地區(qū)對熱煤的需求繼續(xù)上升。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,預(yù)計到2020年,全球熱煤需求將小幅上升,但歐洲和美國的需求將下降。印度對冶金煤的需求預(yù)計將穩(wěn)步增長,而隨著生鐵產(chǎn)量達(dá)到峰值,中國的需求預(yù)計將下降。預(yù)計澳大利亞將繼續(xù)保持強(qiáng)勁的出口增長,以滿足全球需求。隨著政府調(diào)整能源結(jié)構(gòu)的政策的實(shí)施,中國的煤炭需求和產(chǎn)量預(yù)計將在2020年前下降。不過,煤炭進(jìn)口預(yù)計將主要保持在目前水平,這取決于供求關(guān)系的調(diào)整。印度尼西亞目前是世界上最大的出口國,隨著政府采取旨在保護(hù)和有效利用資源的抑制生產(chǎn)措施(2019年達(dá)到4億噸),預(yù)計出口將下降。海上熱煤價格已升至目前的90美元/噸水平,預(yù)計中期將降至70美元/噸左右,2018年后將再次上漲。
Nearly 75% of global coal consumption occurred in APEC member economies in 2016. The region is home to five of the world's 10 largest net coal exporters and six of the world’s top 10 net coal importers. ? Strong economic growth over the period 2005-2015 (averaging 3.1% a year) increased coal demand by more than 30%, from 2 274 Mtoe (in 2005) to 2 897 (in 2015), an annual rate of 2.5% (equivalent to 62 Mtoe per year or Canada’s and Australia total coal demand in 2015 combined). ? By 2015, coal continues to dominate the power mix in the APEC region, accounting for more than half of electricity generation. ? Booming Asian economies have created a huge middle class population in the APEC region and subsequently increased iron and steel demand, which reached 1.2 billion tons in 2015 from around 750 Mt in 2005, and cement demand, which has more than doubled since 2005 to reach 3 billion tons in 2015. ? APEC as a region produces enough coal to meet its demand. In 2015, five economies met 98% of APEC’s coal demand: China (59%), USA (14%), Australia (10%), Indonesia (8.7%) and Russia (6.4%) ? For the period 2005 to 2011, China’s coal production increased at a rate of 8% annually but has flattened since because of a significant slowdown in domestic demand. US coal production has slowed significantly in recent years, from 536 Mtoe in 2011 to 431 Mtoe in 2015, because low gas prices are driving coal out of the power sector. ? In 2015, APEC members imported 415 Mtoe of coal, 48% more than in 2005. Over 80% of total APEC imports went to four economies: Japan (116 Mtoe), China (100 Mtoe), Korea (81 Mtoe) and Chinese Taipei (36 Mtoe). ? Demand for thermal coal continued to rise in emerging regions such as South and Southeast Asia on the back of growing power demand. Global thermal coal demand is expected to edge upwards to 2020, in tandem with economic growth, but decline in Europe and the United States. ? Demand for metallurgical coal is expected to increase steadily in India, while demand is expected to fall in China as the production volume for pig iron reaches its peak. Australia is expected to continue strong export growth to meet global demand. ? China’s coal demand and production are expected to fall moving towards 2020 as government policies to adjust energy structure are implemented. However, coal imports are expected to remain mostly at the current level, depending on adjustments to demand and supply. ? Indonesia’s exports, currently the largest in the world, are expected to decline as the government adopts measures to suppress production (to 400 million tonnes in 2019) aimed at the protection and effective use of resources. ? The seaborne thermal coal price, which has risen to the current level of US$90/tonne, is expected to drop to about US$70/tonne in the medium term before increasing again after 2018.-
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