首頁 > 資料下載 > 煤炭終端下降的報道可能被夸大Reports of coal’s terminal decline may be exaggerated

煤炭終端下降的報道可能被夸大Reports of coal’s terminal decline may be exaggerated

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更新時間：2021-09-16
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我們估計目前正在建設(shè)、宣布或計劃中的燃煤電廠預(yù)計將釋放的累積未來排放量。盡管煤炭消費(fèi)量最近有所下降，新建燃煤電廠的計劃也被擱置，但建設(shè)所有這些計劃中的燃煤電廠將危及國家和國際氣候目標(biāo)。建設(shè)新的燃煤發(fā)電能力的計劃可能會損害一些國家（預(yù)期的）提交給《氣候公約》的由國家決定的捐款的可信度。如果目前計劃建設(shè)的所有燃煤發(fā)電廠都建成了，達(dá)到2℃溫度目標(biāo)的碳預(yù)算將幾乎耗盡。因此，關(guān)于“煤炭的最終衰退”的說法可能為時過早。逐步淘汰煤炭需要有專門和精心設(shè)計的政策。我們討論政策選擇的政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，以避免煤炭發(fā)電廠的持續(xù)建設(shè)。

We estimate the cumulative future emissions expectedto be released by coal power plants thatare currently under construction, announced, or planned. Even though coal consumption has recently declinedandplanstobuild newcoal-?redcapacitieshavebeenshelved,constructingalltheseplanned coal-?red power plants would endanger national and international climate targets. Plansto build new coal-?red power capacitywould likely undermine the credibility of some countries’ (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions submitted to the UNFCCC.If all the coal-?red power plants that are currently planned were built, the carbon budget for reaching the 2?C temperature target would nearly be depleted. Propositions about ‘coal’s terminal decline’ may thereby be premature. The phase-out of coal requires dedicated and well-designed policies. We discuss the political economy of policy options that could avoid a continued build-up of coal-?red power plants.

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上一條：煤炭開采政策與重大舉措COAL MINING POLICY AND MAIOR INITIATIVES

下一條：美國的煤炭崩潰證明了結(jié)構(gòu)的改變The US Coal Crash Evidence for Structural Change

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