本報(bào)告匯集了煤炭轉(zhuǎn)型項(xiàng)目的主要見解。“煤炭轉(zhuǎn)型”是一個(gè)國(guó)際研究聯(lián)盟，旨在支持關(guān)于煤炭未來的基于事實(shí)的對(duì)話。研究方面的項(xiàng)目包括三個(gè)流:分析過去的煤和工業(yè)過渡y案例研究途徑實(shí)現(xiàn)煤炭轉(zhuǎn)換兼容“遠(yuǎn)低于2C”目標(biāo)的六個(gè)主要煤炭利用的經(jīng)濟(jì)體,如中國(guó)、印度、南非、波蘭、德國(guó)和澳大利亞的y分析煤炭轉(zhuǎn)換在全球煤炭貿(mào)易的影響。本報(bào)告所引用的國(guó)家案例研究是由各自國(guó)家煤炭部門以及能源系統(tǒng)、勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)和工業(yè)政策方面的國(guó)家專家編寫的。案例研究的目的是為實(shí)施國(guó)家煤炭轉(zhuǎn)型提出具體的選擇方案，這些方案既要與《巴黎協(xié)定》的“遠(yuǎn)低于2攝氏度”的目標(biāo)相一致，又要公平公正，尊重國(guó)家差異。然而，它們不一定符合《巴黎協(xié)定》(Paris Agreement)將氣溫升幅限制在1.5攝氏度以內(nèi)的理想目標(biāo)。關(guān)于研究使用的方法的進(jìn)一步資料可在報(bào)告的導(dǎo)言和本研究的具體報(bào)告中找到。主要結(jié)論1。煤炭轉(zhuǎn)型已經(jīng)開始。由于氣候和非氣候政策因素，全球煤炭消費(fèi)可能在本世紀(jì)20年代初出現(xiàn)逆轉(zhuǎn)——如果現(xiàn)在還沒有出現(xiàn)的話。在這種情況下，政府和負(fù)責(zé)任的利益相關(guān)者有責(zé)任為有管理的煤炭轉(zhuǎn)型做好準(zhǔn)備。全球已有36個(gè)國(guó)家的政府和28家公司承諾，將在2030年前逐步淘汰電力行業(yè)的煤炭。各國(guó)政府正開始實(shí)施新的探索性舉措，包括過渡工作組、煤炭過渡委員會(huì)和利益相關(guān)方協(xié)商平臺(tái)，以探討結(jié)束煤炭使用的各種選擇。主要煤炭消耗經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭也在增強(qiáng)。在中國(guó)、印度和南非等大型發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體，最近已經(jīng)出臺(tái)或正在討論在未來10年遏制和/或減少煤炭消耗的政策。一場(chǎng)關(guān)于煤炭使用量何時(shí)開始達(dá)到峰值(印度)或何時(shí)開始下降(中國(guó)、南非)的辯論正在展開。這引發(fā)了關(guān)于這些國(guó)家何時(shí)以及如何管理煤炭轉(zhuǎn)型的討論，這一過程得到了煤炭轉(zhuǎn)型項(xiàng)目的演示和支持。煤炭轉(zhuǎn)型在技術(shù)上是可行的，也是負(fù)擔(dān)得起的。對(duì)所有6個(gè)國(guó)家保持在2攝氏度以下的技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)情景的分析表明，到2040-2050年，煤炭可以被一系列替代能源替代，包括太陽能、風(fēng)能、水能、生物質(zhì)能、核能和天然氣。即使在采用CCS的情況下，由于成本和可行性的挑戰(zhàn)，煤炭在2050年的電力結(jié)構(gòu)中仍然只占很小的一部分。由于可再生能源的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力日益增強(qiáng)，向這些替代能源的過渡可以在不顯著提高電力系統(tǒng)成本的情況下進(jìn)行。在某些情況下，如南非，消費(fèi)者的成本可以降低，使電力結(jié)構(gòu)多樣化。研究還發(fā)現(xiàn)，減少對(duì)新燃煤電廠的依賴，更注重推廣離網(wǎng)太陽能+電池解決方案，可以為印度等地離網(wǎng)社區(qū)提供更便宜、更有效的電力供應(yīng)。政府可以通過避免過度建設(shè)新電廠、淘汰舊的攤銷電廠以及確保剩余燃煤電廠的最大運(yùn)營(yíng)壽命政策來避免煤炭行業(yè)的資產(chǎn)擱淺。煤炭工人和社區(qū)的“公平過渡”是可能的。雖然沒有實(shí)現(xiàn)公正轉(zhuǎn)型的普遍藍(lán)圖，但煤炭轉(zhuǎn)型項(xiàng)目確定了大量具體的政策解決方案。他們中的許多人在過去的煤炭轉(zhuǎn)型中已經(jīng)嘗試和測(cè)試過。這些方案的設(shè)計(jì)同利益攸關(guān)者在決策過程的早期進(jìn)行有意義的協(xié)商和參與一樣，對(duì)它們的效力非常重要。然而，早期的預(yù)測(cè)和準(zhǔn)備過渡是實(shí)現(xiàn)最佳效果的關(guān)鍵。量身定做的勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移計(jì)劃和建立地方經(jīng)濟(jì)彈性需要時(shí)間、準(zhǔn)備和邊做邊學(xué)。4. 煤炭轉(zhuǎn)型可以加強(qiáng)全球氣候行動(dòng)，并實(shí)現(xiàn)其他社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)目標(biāo)。例如，該項(xiàng)目發(fā)現(xiàn)，在印度減少對(duì)燃煤電廠的依賴(需要用水降溫)將有助于減少缺水地區(qū)的水和電之間的沖突。在中國(guó)和印度，減少煤炭的使用將有助于消除對(duì)人類健康不利的SO2、NOx和PM2.5顆粒的主要來源之一。在非洲和印度，利用微電網(wǎng)發(fā)電可能比新建燃煤電廠更便宜、更有效。在南非，電力部門的煤炭多樣化將有助于降低電力供應(yīng)的成本，同時(shí)限制煤炭出口部門對(duì)電力部門進(jìn)行交叉補(bǔ)貼的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在波蘭，實(shí)施有管理的褐煤開采過渡將有助于為未來10-20年內(nèi)褐煤礦的枯竭做好準(zhǔn)備。在澳大利亞，煤炭轉(zhuǎn)型也涉及對(duì)出口市場(chǎng)下滑的審慎規(guī)劃。在許多情況下，煤礦區(qū)已經(jīng)面臨重大的社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)挑戰(zhàn)。在這些社區(qū)，煤炭轉(zhuǎn)型可以成為一個(gè)有用的“借口”，為未來一代創(chuàng)造包容性的對(duì)話和戰(zhàn)略。因此，“公正的過渡”不僅需要減輕逐步淘汰煤炭的不利影響。在本報(bào)告審查的國(guó)家中，煤炭部門的利益攸關(guān)方往往承認(rèn)，煤炭的日子已經(jīng)屈指可數(shù)，需要為過渡作好準(zhǔn)備。然而，這樣做需要政府承擔(dān)起解決問題的責(zé)任。這意味著建立一個(gè)專門的政策框架，為所有受影響的各方支持公平和有管理的過渡。該報(bào)告及其所依據(jù)的研究提供了一些政策制定者可能希望考慮的煤炭過渡方案。它還強(qiáng)調(diào)了需要進(jìn)一步研究煤轉(zhuǎn)變的領(lǐng)域。

This report brings together the main insights from the  Coal Transitions project. Coal Transitions was an international research consortium seeking to support fact-based  dialogue on the future of coal. The research side of the  project included three work streams: y Analysis of past coal and industrial transitions y Case studies on pathways to implement coal transitions compatible with the “well below 2C” objective  in six major coal-using economies, i.e. China, India,  South Africa, Poland, Germany, and Australia y Analysis of the impacts of coal transitions on the global  coal trade. The national case studies cited in this report were developed by national experts on the coal sector, as well  as on energy systems, labour markets and industrial  policy in the respective countries. The case studies aim  to suggest concrete options for implementing national  coal transitions that are consistent with the “well below  2C” aim of the Paris Agreement, while being fair and  just, and respecting national differences. However, they  are not necessarily compatible with the Paris Agreement  aspirational goal to limit temperature increases to 1.5C.  Further information on the methodology used for the  research can be found in the introduction to the report  and in the specific reports this study draws from.Key findings 1. Coal transitions are already happening. Due to  both climate and non-climate policy factors, global coal  consumption could go into reverse by the early 2020s, if  it has not done so already. In this context, it is incumbent  upon governments and responsible stakeholders to prepare for a managed coal transition. 36 governments and  28 companies around the world have already committed  to phasing out coal from the power sector by 2030.  Governments are beginning to put in place new exploratory initiatives, just transition task forces, coal transition  commissions and stakeholder consultation platforms to  explore options for the end of coal use. Momentum is also building in major coal-consuming  economies. In large developing economies like China,  India and South Africa, policies have been introduced  recently or are being discussed to curb and/or reduce coal consumption over the coming decade. A debate  is now emerging on when coal use should begin to  either peak (India) or decline (China, South Africa).  This is generating discussion on when and how to  manage coal transitions in these countries, a process  that is both demonstrated and supported by the Coal  Transitions project.2. Coal transitions are technically feasible and affordable. The analysis of the techno-economic scenario  required to stay below 2C for all six countries showed  that by 2040-2050 coal can be replaced with a portfolio  of alternative energy sources, including solar, wind, hydro, biomass, nuclear, and natural gas. Even in scenarios  with CCS, coal remains a minor part of the power mix in  2050, due to its cost and feasibility challenges. Because of the growing competitiveness of renewable  energy, the transition to these alternatives can occur  without significantly higher costs for the electricity  system. In some cases, such as South Africa, costs for  consumers could be reduced diversifying the power  mix. A lower reliance on new coal plants and a greater  focus on promoting off-grid solar-plus-battery solutions was also found to provide cheaper and more  effective access to electricity for off-grid communities  in places like India. Governments can avoid stranded  assets in the coal sector by avoiding overbuilding  new plants, retiring old amortised ones, and ensuring  maximum operational lifetime policies for remaining  coal plants.3. A “just transition” for coal workers and communities is possible. While there is no universal blueprint  for implementing a just transition, the Coal Transitions  project identified a large number of specific policy solutions. Many of them have been tried and tested during  past coal transitions. The design of such programmes  matters greatly to their effectiveness, as does the meaningful consultation and participation of stakeholders early on in the decision-making process. However, early  anticipation and preparation of the transition is vital to  achieve the best results. Tailored workforce transition  programmes and the building of local economic resilience require time, preparation and learning by doing. 4. Coal transitions can strengthen global climate  action and deliver other social and economic objectives. The project found, for instance, that in India a  lower reliance on coal-fired power plants (which require  water for cooling) would help reduce conflicts between  water and electricity access in water-stressed regions. In  China and India, reducing coal use would help eliminate  one of the major contributors of SO2, NOx and PM2.5  particles that adversely affect human health. In Africa  and India, energy access could be cheaper and more effective with micro-grids than new coal plants. In South Africa, diversification from coal in the power  sector would help reduce the cost of supplying electricity, while limiting the risk of cross-subsidisation of  the power sector by the coal export sector. In Poland,  implementing a managed transition for lignite mining  would help prepare for the exhaustion of lignite mines  expected within the next 10-20 years. In Australia, coal  transitions are also about prudent planning for the decline of export markets. In many cases, coal mining regions are already facing  significant social and economic challenges. In these communities, coal transitions can become a useful “excuse”  to create an inclusive dialogue and strategy for the future  generation. “Just transition” therefore needs to be not  only about mitigating the unwanted impacts of phasing  down coal. In the countries examined in this report, stakeholders  in the coal sector often acknowledge that the days of  coal are numbered and there is a need to prepare the  transition. Doing so, however, requires governments to  take ownership of the problem. This means establishing  a dedicated policy framework to support a fair and managed transition for all affected parties. This report and  the research upon which it is based provide a number  of options that policy makers may wish to consider for  coal transitions. It also highlights areas where further  research on coal transitions is needed.