首頁 > 資料下載 > 評估天然氣與煤發(fā)電氣候效益的關(guān)鍵因素Key factors for assessing climate bene?ts of natural gas versus coal electricity g

評估天然氣與煤發(fā)電氣候效益的關(guān)鍵因素Key factors for assessing climate bene?ts of natural gas versus coal electricity g

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評估天然氣和煤炭發(fā)電的潛在氣候影響是復(fù)雜的。由大量因素報(bào)告的生命周期評價(jià)研究，由大到大建議的氣候指標(biāo)的數(shù)量。因此，需要確定影響以下因素的關(guān)鍵因素天然氣與煤電生產(chǎn)的氣候效應(yīng)，以及呈現(xiàn)這些氣候以盡可能清晰透明的方式產(chǎn)生效果。這里，我們確定發(fā)電廠的財(cái)務(wù)狀況以及甲烷泄漏率作為解釋溫室氣體大部分變化的因素天然氣和煤電廠的排放。因此，我們關(guān)注這些因素在確定天然氣與煤電廠的相對優(yōu)點(diǎn)。我們開發(fā)了一個(gè)簡單的估算天然氣和煤炭發(fā)電廠CO2和CH4排放的模型，以及溫度變化。簡單的基礎(chǔ)物理變化可以通過抽象評估來掩蓋因此，我們集中分析全球平均溫度的時(shí)間演化。我們的在工廠運(yùn)行期間，如果甲烷大量泄漏，天然氣與具有相同電力輸出的煤電廠相比，電廠可以產(chǎn)生更大的近期變暖。然而，如果甲烷泄漏率低，發(fā)電廠效益高，天然氣發(fā)電廠能夠減少短期的變暖。從長遠(yuǎn)來看，天然氣發(fā)電廠產(chǎn)生比煤電廠更少的變暖。然而，沒有碳捕獲和儲存天然氣發(fā)電廠無法實(shí)現(xiàn)大幅削減需要避免對額外的全球變暖作出重大貢獻(xiàn)。

Assessing potential climate effects of natural gas versus coal electricity generation is complicated by the large number of factors reported in life cycle assessment studies, compounded by the large number of proposed climate metrics. Thus, there is a need to identify the key factors affecting the climate effects of natural gas versus coal electricity production, and to present these climate effects in as clear and transparent a way as possible. Here, we identify power plant ef?ciencies and methane leakage rates as the factors that explain most of the variance in greenhouse gas emissions by natural gas and coal power plants. Thus, we focus on the role of these factors in determining the relative merits of natural gas versus coal power plants. We develop a simple model estimating CO2 and CH4 emissions from natural gas and coal power plants, and resulting temperature change. Simple underlying physical changes can be obscured by abstract evaluation metrics, thus we focus our analysis on the time evolution of global mean temperature. We ?nd that, during the period of plant operation, if there is substantial methane leakage, natural gas plants can produce greater near-term warming than coal plants with the same power output. However, if methane leakage rates are low and power plant ef?ciency is high, natural gas plants can produce some reduction in near-term warming. In the long term, natural gas power plants produce less warming than would occur with coal power plants. However, without carbon capture and storage natural gas power plants cannot achieve the deep reductions that would be required to avoid substantial contribution to additional global warming.

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