2005至2015年間，美國(guó)電力部門(mén)排放的氮氧化物，危害人類(lèi)健康和環(huán)境，下降了三分之二，許多燃煤發(fā)電廠變得無(wú)利可圖，退休了。公眾對(duì)這些變化的激烈爭(zhēng)論集中在這些變化上，但相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)并沒(méi)有確定其根本原因。使用一個(gè)精確再現(xiàn)機(jī)組運(yùn)行、排放和退役的新電力部門(mén)模型，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)幾乎所有的煤電廠盈利能力下降和由此導(dǎo)致的退役都是由電力消耗和天然氣價(jià)格造成的。氮氧化物法規(guī)解釋了大部分減排，但對(duì)煤炭工廠盈利能力和退休影響甚微。

Between 2005 and 2015, US electricity sector emissions of nitrogen oxides, which harm human health and the environment, declined by two-thirds, and many coal-fired power plants became unprofitable and retired. Intense public controversy has focused on these changes, but the literature has not identified their underlying cause. Using a new electricity sector model that accurately reproduces unit operation, emissions, and retirement, we find that electricity consumption and gas prices account for nearly all the coal plant profitability decline and resulting retirements. Nitrogen oxides regulations explain most of the emissions reductions but had little effect on coal plant profitability and retirement