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首頁 > 資料下載 > Prosperity of the industry improves, and the reform of the power market is accelerating行業(yè)景氣度提升,電力市場化
Prosperity of the industry improves, and the reform of the power market is accelerating行業(yè)景氣度提升,電力市場化 Prosperity of the industry improves, and the reform of the power market is accelerating行業(yè)景氣度提升,電力市場化

Prosperity of the industry improves, and the reform of the power market is accelerating行業(yè)景氣度提升,電力市場化

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According to data from GlobalCoalPlantTracker 1, the main indicators of installed capacity growth for coal-fired power plants in 2019 -- including capacity started, approved and pre-developed -- fell for the fourth consecutive year. As the climate problem, as well as the media, investors face in new coal power plant is still more adverse business environment, including more than 126 global influence Banks and insurance companies to expand their investment restrictions, and 27 to 33 countries and the local government has promised to phase out coal and accelerate to make the transition to clean energy. Despite a decline in the construction of coal-fired power plants, the installed capacity of coal-fired power plants grew faster in 2019 than in 2018. The main reason for the increase is that China's coal power capacity is still increasing due to the oversupply of permits from 2014 to 2016. With the exception of China, the world's coal-fired power plants have been decommissioned more than they have been put into operation, so coal-fired capacity has shrunk for the second year in a row. Globally, coal-fired power generation fell 3 percent in 2019 from 2018, while the average utilization rate of coal-fired power plants worldwide is now only 51 percent, a record low. China's central government imposed restrictions on new coal-fired power plant plans and permits in 2016. And 2019 is the first year that capacity under early-stage development has increased since the ban. The growth comes as the Chinese power industry continues to push ahead with capacity targets in the next five years to make room for 200 new coal-fired generating units by 2025. Meanwhile, China is still adding more coal-fired power plants than it needs. According to analysis by the global energy monitor, 40 per cent of installed coal-fired power plants that come on stream in 2019 have been downgraded to restricted emergency backup power.

6月份,全社會用電量同比增長8.0%,增速同比提高1.5個百分點(diǎn);今年上半年全社會用電量同比增長9.4%,增速同比提高了3.1個百分點(diǎn),用電量維持較快增長。上半年,6,000千瓦以上電廠發(fā)電設(shè)備容量同比增長6.2%,增速較上年同期下降0.7個百分點(diǎn),繼續(xù)保持放緩的趨勢。受益于行業(yè)景氣度提升,上半年發(fā)電設(shè)備平均利用小時數(shù)同比增加69小時。國家發(fā)改委、國家能源局近期聯(lián)合發(fā)文,要求加快推進(jìn)電力市場化交易,建立市場化價格形成機(jī)制。電力市場化交易規(guī)模將繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大,行業(yè)優(yōu)勝劣汰或?qū)⒓涌欤袠I(yè)集中度有望提升?;痣姺矫?,發(fā)電量增長較快,市場化交易價差逐漸縮窄,煤炭價格逐漸回歸綠色區(qū)間,火電企業(yè)業(yè)績有望繼續(xù)改善,可關(guān)注優(yōu)質(zhì)火電企業(yè),相關(guān)標(biāo)的有華能國際、華電國際、皖能電力、粵電力A。水電方面,增值稅優(yōu)惠政策取消或?qū)⒂绊懫髽I(yè)盈利,但下半年來水情況預(yù)計偏豐,水電企業(yè)業(yè)績有望穩(wěn)中有升,可關(guān)注高股息率的長江電力以及“水火互補(bǔ)”的國投電力。核電方面,第三代機(jī)組建設(shè)進(jìn)展順利,臺山、三門核電機(jī)組已實(shí)現(xiàn)首次并網(wǎng),預(yù)計年內(nèi)將實(shí)現(xiàn)商運(yùn),第三代核電技術(shù)有望獲得驗(yàn)證。在嚴(yán)控煤電裝機(jī)和水電裝機(jī)增速放緩的前提下,第三代核電技術(shù)的落地將有力地推動新項(xiàng)目審批重啟,可關(guān)注中國核電。

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