下面的評論和數(shù)字只適用于海運(yùn)的世界煤炭市場。他們是初步的。全球海運(yùn)煤炭市場增長了12百萬噸，幾乎增長了7%。增長率很可能不會(huì)代表全年。我們預(yù)計(jì)全年增長4 - 5%。第二季度的趨勢證實(shí)了這一假設(shè)。動(dòng)力煤(見表2)動(dòng)力煤市場分為太平洋市場和大西洋市場。這兩個(gè)市場之間的噸位交換是次要的，數(shù)量約占7 - 8%的海上貿(mào)易的蒸汽煤。進(jìn)入大西洋市場的主要出口國是印度尼西亞(來自太平洋地區(qū))。a) 2006年第一季度的太平洋市場供給量大體上與2005年的趨勢相同。印尼和越南正在推動(dòng)他們的出口,而中國由3緒t減少出口,增加進(jìn)口了近5緒t(動(dòng)力煤和無煙煤),這意味著其他出口商必須填補(bǔ)一個(gè)空白8緒t b)大西洋市場供應(yīng)大西洋市場也看到在2006年第一季度大幅增長。所有主要生產(chǎn)國都增加了出口。2006年第二季度，運(yùn)輸問題、惡劣天氣和罷工打擊了哥倫比亞和南非的生產(chǎn)和出口。c)澳大利亞焦煤總出口量下降，但硬焦煤出口量增加了300萬噸，至2200萬噸。第一季度海運(yùn)焦煤總出口量下降。不過，在全球鋼鐵行業(yè)繁榮的背景下，焦煤市場將在2006年出現(xiàn)增長。中國減少了從海運(yùn)世界市場進(jìn)口的焦煤。在一定程度上，消費(fèi)場所仍有大量焦煤庫存，必須將其降至正常水平。今年第一季度，可口可樂的需求下降了100萬桶。d)價(jià)格演變(見表1)從年初開始，動(dòng)力煤的價(jià)格一直在上漲。今年3月，南非6000千卡/公斤浮煤的基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格從43美元/噸升至58美元/噸。從那以后，它開始下降，浮動(dòng)在48 - 52美元/噸之間。哥倫比亞的罷工對價(jià)格的影響有限。天然氣價(jià)格進(jìn)一步上漲，擴(kuò)大了國際動(dòng)力煤的競爭優(yōu)勢。焦煤/焦炭焦煤在高水平下穩(wěn)定，為硬焦煤。焦炭的fob - China價(jià)格在第一季度略有上漲，但現(xiàn)在6月底攀升至150 - 160美元/噸，其中12.5%是焦炭。運(yùn)費(fèi)運(yùn)費(fèi)率比較穩(wěn)定。從理查茲灣到鹿特丹的披風(fēng)型散貨船的基準(zhǔn)運(yùn)費(fèi)在上半年浮動(dòng)在10 - 15美元/噸之間。

WORLD MARKET The following comments and figures only apply to the seaborne World Coal Market.  They are preliminary. World Market Bulk-Evolution The total seaborne coal market increased by 12 Mio t or nearly 7 %. The growth rate most probably will not be representative for the whole year. We expect a growth of  4 - 5 % for the total year. The tendency of the second quarter is confirming this assumption. Steam Coal (see table 2) The Steam Coal market is divided into a Pacific and an Atlantic market. Tonnage exchanges between the two markets are of minor importance, the quantity represents about 7 – 8 % of the seaborne traded steam coals. The major exporter into the Atlantic market is Indonesia (from the Pacific side). a) Pacific Market supply In the first quarter of 2006 in principle the same tendencies as in 2005 are to be observed.Indonesia and Vietnam are pushing their exports while China is reducing its exports  by 3 Mio t and increasing its imports by nearly 5 Mio t (steam coal and anthracite),  that means that the other exporters have to fill a gap of 8 Mio t. b) Atlantic Market supply The Atlantic market also saw a substantial growth in the first quarter of 2006. All major producers increased their exports.  In the second quarter of 2006 transport problems, bad weather conditions and strike hit the production and exports of Columbia and South Africa. c) Coking coal In Australia total coking coal exports decreased, but hard coking increased by 3 Mio t  to 22 Mio t. In total coking coal seaborne exports were shrinking in the first quarter. Nevertheless  the coking coal market should grow in 2006 against the background of a prosperous steel industry worldwide. China reduced its coking coal imports from the seaborne World Market. Partly still  high stocks of coking coal at the consumer sites have to be reduced to normal levels. The demand for coke has decreased by 1 Mio t in the first quarter. The market for coke is picking up in the second quarter of 2006.d) Price evolution (see table 1) Steam coal The prices for steam coal were increasing since the beginning of the year. The benchmark price for steam coal – the south-African 6000 kcal/kg fob-price in-creased  from 43 US$/t to 58 US$/t in March. Since then it moved down and was floating between 48 - 52 US$/t. The strike in Columbia had only a limited influence on prices. The prices of gas increased further, this  is enlarging the competitive advantage of international steam coal. Coking coal / Coke Coking coal was stable at high levels for hard-coking coal. The coke price fob – China increased slightly in the first quarter, but now end of June climbed to 150 – 160 US$/t for 12.5 % ash-coke. Freight The freight rates were relatively stable. The benchmark freight rates for cape-sized  bulk carrier from Richards Bay to Rotterdam were floating in a range between  10 – 15 US$/t in the first half year.