2010年上半年，全球煤炭市場增長了67噸，這是一個巨大的增長，但與經(jīng)濟危機前相比，這個數(shù)字仍然很低。然而在夏末，市場略有下跌。主要的市場驅(qū)動力是焦煤。隨著歐洲、南北美洲、日本和韓國經(jīng)濟的復(fù)蘇，中國仍是一個強大的進口國。世界煤炭貿(mào)易動力煤(見表2)動力煤市場持續(xù)增長。像南非和哥倫比亞這樣的“經(jīng)典”大西洋供應(yīng)商正越來越多地向太平洋市場供貨。2010年前8個月，中國從南非(3噸)和哥倫比亞(3噸)進口了大量的蒸汽煤。從2010年1月到8月，中國總共進口了107噸，而去年同期進口了78噸。中國2009年進口總量為127噸，2010年進口總量可能達到150噸。在失去中國市場后，只有澳大利亞減少了對太平洋地區(qū)的出口。中國目前正從南非和哥倫比亞進口蒸汽煤。預(yù)計環(huán)太平洋地區(qū)的貿(mào)易將進一步增長。b)大西洋市場供應(yīng)大西洋市場,而保持穩(wěn)定,總增加4噸。需求依然疲軟,只有南非和哥倫比亞可以實現(xiàn)出口增加(3噸),而俄羅斯出口降低了2太。南非預(yù)計將達到63量65噸year.2結(jié)束。焦煤供應(yīng)(見表3)2010年前6個月焦煤貿(mào)易增加了41噸，其中澳大利亞(+20噸)和美國(+13噸)是主要參與者。根據(jù)需求，澳大利亞能夠從蒸汽煤轉(zhuǎn)向焦煤出口。加拿大增加了5噸，俄羅斯增加了2噸，中國增加了1噸。這種增長部分是由于歐洲鋼鐵工業(yè)的復(fù)蘇，但也由于來自中國、韓國和日本的需求增加。增加的另一個原因是補充庫存。因此，預(yù)計今年下半年的增長將會放緩。蒙古通過陸路向中國運送了約8噸焦煤，這使澳大利亞失去了部分向中國運送焦煤的機會。中國正在使其進口商品多樣化，并越來越多地從蒙古、俄羅斯和美國進口焦煤，而犧牲了澳大利亞的利益。價格演變(見表1)a)動力煤價格b)煉焦煤和焦炭價格煉焦煤價格目前正按季度確定，在經(jīng)歷了2009年的疲軟之后，今年價格將繼續(xù)上漲，預(yù)計漲幅將更大。PCI和半軟焦煤跟隨焦煤價格的演變。4所示。焦炭FOB中國的價格目前在400美元左右，這個價格包括了40%的出口稅。5。運費率在2008年達到峰值后大幅下降，目前為10‐20美元/噸，這是由于新建造的散貨船增加了2009年(+10%)和2010年(15‐16%)的船隊運力。6。在2009年發(fā)展了10%的散裝運輸船隊之后，2010年的發(fā)展速度可能會達到15‐16%。從1月到9月，運力增長了大約12%。主要增加的是約28米寬的好望角型船只。2010年9月底，總?cè)萘考s為517萬噸，而2009年底為462萬噸。大宗運輸船隊的強勁發(fā)展和世界經(jīng)濟增長的疲軟可能會使運費保持在目前的水平。

WORLD MARKET During the first half of 2010 the world coal market grew by 67 Mt, which is a substantial increase but compared to the years before the economic crisis, the figure is still low. However at the end of the summer, the market decreased slightly.   The main market driver is coking coal. China remains a strong importer, together with the revival of the economy in Europe, South and North America, Japan and Korea.   WORLD COAL TRADE 1. STEAM COAL (see Table 2) The market for steam coal continues to grow. “Classic” Atlantic suppliers like South Africa and Colombia are delivering increasing quantities to the Pacific market. In the first eight months of 2010 China imported considerable quantities of steam coal from South Africa (3 Mt) as well as from Colombia (3 Mt). Altogether China imported 107 Mt from January to August 2010, against 78 Mt during the same period last year. China’s total imports in 2009 amounted to 127 Mt. In 2010 imports could amount to 150 Mt.a) Pacific Market The Pacific Market grew by 22 Mt, with Indonesia steadily increasing exports (+26 Mt). Only Australia decreased exports to the Pacific having lost markets in China, which is now importing steam coal from South Africa and Colombia. Further trade increase is expected in the Pacific Rim. b) Atlantic Market supply The Atlantic Market stayed rather stable, with a total increase of 4 Mt. The demand remained weak, only South Africa and Colombia could achieve export increases (both 3 Mt), whilst Russia decreased exports by 2 Mt. South Africa is expected to reach a total of 63‐65 Mt at the end of the year.2. COKING COAL SUPPLY  (see Table 3) Coking coal trade increased by 41 Mt in the first six months of 2010 with Australia (+20 Mt) and USA (+13 Mt) being the major players. Depending on demand, Australia is able to switch from steam coal to coking coal exports. Canada increased exports by 5 Mt, Russia by 2 Mt and China by 1 Mt. This growth is partly due to the comeback of the European steel industry but also to increasing demands from China, South Korea and Japan. Another reason for this increase is the replenishing of stocks. Growth in the second half of the year is therefore expected to be lower. Mongolia delivers some 8 Mt of coking coal to China by land, making Australia lose a part of its coking coal deliveries to China.   China is diversifying its imports and increasingly importing coking coal from Mongolia, and also from Russia and the USA at the expense of Australia.3. PRICE EVOLUTION (see Table 1) a) Steam Coal Prices b) Coking Coal and Coke Prices Coking coal prices are now being determined on a quarterly basis and after a weak year in 2009, they are getting higher this year and are expected to grow even more. PCI and semi‐ soft coking coal are following the price evolution of coking coal.   4. EVOLUTION OF COKE PRICES FOB CHINA The coke price fob China is currently traded at some 400 US$, a price which includes an export tax of 40 %.  5. FREIGHT RATES Freight rates came dramatically down after a peak in 2008 and are now between 10‐20 US$/t due to new‐build of bulk carriers, with increased fleet capacities in 2009 (+10%) and 2010 (15‐16%).   6. DEVELOPMENT OF THE BULK TRANSPORT FLEET After a 10 % development of the bulk transport fleet in 2009, the development rate will probably reach 15  ‐ 16% in 2010. Between January and September, capacity increased by approximately 12%. The major increase was constituted by capesize vessels with approximately 28 M Dwt. At the end of September 2010 the overall capacity was approximately 517 M Dwt against 462 M Dwt at the end of 2009. The strong development of the bulk transport fleet and the somewhat weaker growth of the world economy might maintain freight rates at their current level.