Risk-opportunity analyses and production peak forecasting on world conventional oil and gas perspect
- 期刊名字:石油科學(xué)(英文版)
- 文件大小:
- 論文作者:Sun Zandong,Zhang Yiwei,Sun Yo
- 作者單位:Lab for Integration of Geology and Geophysics,State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Prospecting,Earth Resource
- 更新時間:2023-02-02
- 下載次數(shù):次
To investigate the situation of conventional oil and gas, this paper examines the global oil and gas discoveries, proved reserves, production, consumption and price. All the influencing factors can be subjected to risk and opportunity analyses, so in the paper, we build upon a risk-opportunity analysis framework, which is a new train of thought. To forecast the peak time of oil and gas production, we used the methods of multi-Hubbert model forecasting and data forecasting. Our results showed that the world oil production will reach a peak between 2010 and 2015 and the gas production will reach a peak around 2030 Oil peak is coming and gas peak is on the way. The main purpose of forecasting oil and gas production peak is give people enough time for preparing mitigation and adaptation plans. This means taking decisive action well before the problem is obvious.
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