Tide forecasting method based on dynamic weight distribution for operational evaluation
- 期刊名字:水科學與水工程
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- 論文作者:Shao-wei QIU,Zeng-chuan DONG,F(xiàn)
- 作者單位:State Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Shanghai Flood Risk Information Center
- 更新時間:2023-04-20
- 下載次數(shù):次
Through analysis of operational evaluation factors for tide forecasting, the relationship between the evaluation factors and the weights of forecasters was examined. A tide forecasting method based on dynamic weight distribution for operational evaluation was developed, and multiple-forecaster synchronous forecasting was realized while avoiding the instability cased by only one forecaster. Weights were distributed to the forecasters according to each one's forecast precision. An evaluation criterion for the professional level of the forecasters was also built. The eligibility rates of forecast results demonstrate the skill of the forecasters and the stability of their forecasts. With the developed tide forecasting method, the precision and reasonableness of tide forecasting are improved. The application of the present method to tide forecasting at the Huangpu Park tidal station demonstrates the validity of the method.
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