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Forecast and analysis of the "roof effect" of world net oil-exporting capacity Forecast and analysis of the "roof effect" of world net oil-exporting capacity

Forecast and analysis of the "roof effect" of world net oil-exporting capacity

  • 期刊名字:石油科學(xué)(英文版)
  • 文件大?。?/li>
  • 論文作者:TONG Xiaoguang,ZHAO Lin,WANG Z
  • 作者單位:School of Business,China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Corporation
  • 更新時間:2023-02-01
  • 下載次數(shù):
論文簡介

Oil is extremely crucial to the development of the modem economy.It is important to forecast the oil supply capacity due to its scarcity and non-renewability.This paper attempts to forecast and analyze thirty-five current and potential net oil-exporting countries.Integrating both qualitative and quantitative methods,the oil production and consumption are predicted based on historical data,so that the world net oil-exporting capacity can be obtained.The results show that the “roof effect” of the world net oil-exporting capacity may appear before 2030.Unconventional oil will play an important role in the future world oil market.The competition and cooperation relationships between OPEC and non-OPEC will last for a long time.

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